forecasting price of egg with holt-winters smoothing, box-jenkins (arima) and artificial neural network (ann)
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Robust forecasting with exponential and holt-winters smoothing
Robust versions of the exponential and Holt–Winters smoothing method for forecasting are presented. They are suitable for forecasting univariate time series in the presence of outliers. The robust exponential and Holt–Winters smoothing methods are presented as recursive updating schemes that apply the standard technique to pre-cleaned data. Both the update equation and the selection of the smoo...
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We propose new versions of Holt-Winters (HW) and seasonal Holt-Winters (SHW) time series forecasting algorithms. The exponential smoothing construct is identical to HW/SHW, except that the coefficients are estimated by minimizing a given quantile error criterion, instead of the usual squared errors. We call these versions quantile HW/SHW (QHW/QSHW), which amounts to performing HW/SHW under an a...
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The problem of medium to long term sales forecasting raises a number of requirements that must be suitably addressed in the design of the employed forecasting methods. These include long forecasting horizons (up to 52 periods ahead), a high number of quantities to be forecasted, which limits the possibility of human intervention, as well as frequent introduction of new articles (for which no pa...
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today, scouring is one of the important topics in the river and coastal engineering so that the most destruction in the bridges is occurred due to this phenomenon. whereas the bridges are assumed as the most important connecting structures in the communications roads in the country and their importance is doubled while floodwater, thus exact design and maintenance thereof is very crucial. f...
Forecasting of Sporadic Demand Patterns with Seasonality and Trend Components: An Empirical Comparison between Holt-Winters and (S)ARIMA Methods
Items with irregular and sporadic demand profiles are frequently tackled by companies, given the necessity of proposing wider and wider mix, along with characteristics of specific market fields i.e., when spare parts are manufactured and sold . Furthermore, a new company entering into the market is featured by irregular customers’ orders. Hence, consistent efforts are spent with the aim of corr...
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The main objective of this study is to find out whether an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) will be useful to predict stock market price, which is highly non-linear and uncertain. Specifically, this study will focus on forecasting TSE Price Index (TEPIX) as the most significant index of Iran Stock Market. Many data have been used as inputs to the network. These data are observations of 2000 day...
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عنوان ژورنال:
پژوهشنامه بازرگانیجلد ۱۶، شماره ۶۲، صفحات ۴۹-۷۲
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